During aging, skin homeostasis is essential for maintaining appearance, as well as biological defense of the human body. In this study, we identified thrombospondin-1 (THBS1) and fibromodulin (FMOD) as positive and negative regulators, respectively, of the TGF-β1-SMAD4 axis in human skin aging, based on in vitro and in vivo omics analyses and mathematical modeling. Using transcriptomic and epigenetic analyses of senescent dermal fibroblasts, TGF-β1 was identified as the key upstream regulator. Bifurcation analysis revealed a binary high-/low-TGF-β1 switch, with THBS1 as the main controller. Computational simulation of the TGF-β1 signaling pathway indicated that THBS1 expression was sensitively regulated, whereas FMOD was regulated robustly. Results of sensitivity analysis and validation showed that inhibition of SMAD4 complex formation was a promising method to control THBS1 production and senescence. Therefore, this study demonstrated the potential of combining data-driven target discovery with mathematical approaches to determine the mechanisms underlying skin aging.